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Person99
Joined: 09 Mar 2006
Posts: 4899
Location: Flower Mound, TX
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| Posted: Tue Jul 14, 2009 9:53 pm Post subject: Will Rental Patterns Slow BD Adoption? |
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I heard on NPR today that those DVD rental Kiosks at the grocery store and everywhere are basically booming. Netflicks considers them its number one competition (not BB in any way).
Kiosks don't carry BDs and I don't see them carrying them anytime soon if ever. Most experts think that VOD will be the primary distribution mechanism and clear winner in 5 years. Given that rental patterns are moving to Kiosks, I still hold firm in the view that BD will never *really* catch on. I think people will be very happy with DVD over the next 5 years as they are transitioning to VOD.
That means a couple things:
1) BD prices will never go down due to low demand (won't be picking them up for $13).
2) Online (e.g. Netflix) will likely be the only way to rent them and end up serving a very small niche market--hopefully big enough that that they survice or it makes it worth their while as they attempt to transition to VOD.
Thoughts?
_________________
Dave
A train station is where the train stops. A bus station is where the bus stops. On my desk, I have a work station....
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garyfritz
Joined: 08 Apr 2006
Posts: 12088
Location: Fort Collins, CO
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| Posted: Tue Jul 14, 2009 9:56 pm Post subject: |
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Most people can't see the difference between HD and SD, given their displays and the distance they watch from. I suspect the least-common-denominator will drive the technology in the future -- away from good HD and toward blocky/lossy satellite, VOD, or similar.
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greg_mitch
Joined: 03 May 2006
Posts: 5320
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| Posted: Tue Jul 14, 2009 10:12 pm Post subject: |
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If BR's are available for $20 now, why complain. I buy used on Amazon and can get almost anything I want for cheap to own.
I could see that the Redbox will eventually have a competitor (Blue Box?) that includes BR's.
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Person99
Joined: 09 Mar 2006
Posts: 4899
Location: Flower Mound, TX
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| Posted: Tue Jul 14, 2009 10:21 pm Post subject: |
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| greg_mitch wrote: | | If BR's are available for $20 now, why complain. |
Honestly, selfishness. I find it silly to purchase a movie I will only watch 1 or 2 times (which is most movies) when I can rent them for about $2. Considering an average title watching of 1.3 times (and that is generous, I really only watch a few kids movies and a few favs more than once) it means to rent 100 movies costs $260. To buy those same movies at $20 would cost $2000.
So, $260 or $2000 for the EXACT SAME experience. Hmmmmm. This falls into the category of NO BRAINER!!! 
So, I want renting of BD to be:
1) Easy
2) Cheap
3) Widespread
But I'm worried it never will be.
_________________
Dave
A train station is where the train stops. A bus station is where the bus stops. On my desk, I have a work station....
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greg_mitch
Joined: 03 May 2006
Posts: 5320
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| Posted: Tue Jul 14, 2009 10:58 pm Post subject: |
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I definitely rent more than buy but I don't see that habit changing anymore from my habits of DVD. Once DVD burning and archiving was made mainstream...I stopped buying DVD's. That was about 8 years ago?
I also only buy certain BR's, but I don't think they are outrageous in price. They could be cheaper...and I would buy more if they were cheaper, but still not a deal breaker for me.
I have used Redbox before also, and I would see this as a great alternative to Netflix if they offered BR's in the kiosk.
I would be very concerned if I were Netflix also.
I don't think it is possible for BR's to get to the DVD level, but I don't think anyone thought that, did they?
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wallace123456
Joined: 14 Aug 2006
Posts: 2236
Location: Northwest VA area
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| Posted: Wed Jul 15, 2009 12:27 am Post subject: |
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Maybe some good news on the way.
I was at the local grocery store here 2 weeks ago. The Red Box guy was there changing out movies and stuff. As I was passing by on my way out, I said, "You guys ought to put BD movies in here". To my suprise, he looked up and smiled and said, "We are going to start putting BD titles as well as games (I think he said X-Box, but don't remember) in very shortly.
We will see.
EDIT: Just found this: http://www.redbox.com/ads/bluray.aspx
Very nice!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
$1.00!!!
wallace
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ecrabb
Forum Moderator
Joined: 13 Mar 2006
Posts: 15909
Location: Utah
TV/Projector: JVC RS40, Epson 5010
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| Posted: Wed Jul 15, 2009 3:26 am Post subject: |
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Good news! Looks like your concerns are unfounded, Dave!
This is timely... Just got this in email this afternoon:
| Quote: | DVD, Blu-ray rental resurges in first half
PHYSICAL: Recession fuels revenue; BD grows 62.4% over 2008
By Marcy Magiera -- Video Business, 7/14/2009
JULY 14 | PHYSICAL: Budget-minded consumers looked to video rental for entertainment during the first half of the year, with consumer rental revenue for DVD and Blu-ray Disc rising 8.3% to $3.4 billion across all channels, according to Rentrak Corp.
The year-over-year growth was driven by Blu-ray and by rental kiosks including Redbox, which have drawn cash-strapped consumers with their $1 per night rental fees.
Rentrak’s data, collected weekly at point-of-sale and projected nationally, shows a slight 2.4% decline in DVD revenue in traditional and online stores being well offset by a 62.4% growth in Blu-ray rentals in those channels.
“At mid-year, rental is showing good results,” Rentrak VP Brad Hackley said. “Declines in the bricks-and-mortar rental business are being offset by growth in online and kiosks.”
Rentrak shows revenue from the kiosk channel growing by more than 150% in the first half, which comprises Jan. 4 to June 28, over the comparable period a year earlier.
The U.S. kiosk industry, led by Coinstar’s Redbox, is expected to continue to expand over the next few years. Redbox, which almost doubled its kiosk count to 12,900 in 2008, plans to have as many as 22,000 machines by the end of this year. At the same time, ATM-making giant NCR is working with U.S. movie-rental chain leader Blockbuster to develop 3,000 Blockbuster Express machines by the end of the year and 10,000 units by the end of 2010.
Rentrak supplies the data for Video Business’ weekly Top DVD Sellers, Top Blu-ray Sellers and Top DVD Renters charts. |
Let me quote that, again: "a slight 2.4% decline in DVD revenue in traditional and online stores being well offset by a 62.4% growth in Blu-ray rentals in those channels."
DVD finally on the decline and Blu-ray making huge increases!!! Good to see, eh?
SC
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Spanky Ham
Joined: 22 Mar 2006
Posts: 5643
Location: Comedy Central
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| Posted: Wed Jul 15, 2009 4:25 am Post subject: |
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Crabb,
What are the overall sales?
I am a little more optimistic. While I think the distribution model will continue to change over the next couple of years, I think the video quality will get better. This may be a one step back, two steps forward type deal.
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ecrabb
Forum Moderator
Joined: 13 Mar 2006
Posts: 15909
Location: Utah
TV/Projector: JVC RS40, Epson 5010
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| Posted: Wed Jul 15, 2009 5:28 am Post subject: |
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I don't have overall sales figures, but here's another good article from last month:
| Quote: | ESCA: Blu-ray will be 50% of market by 2012
PHYSICAL: Futuresource predicts software sales to grow with set-top price drops
By Susanne Ault -- Video Business, 6/24/2009
JUNE 24 | PHYSICAL: LOS ANGELES—Blu-ray Disc is not being adopted as fast as once expected, but the format’s relatively steady growth remains a huge driver for the home entertainment business, according to Futuresource Consulting. At a presentation at the Entertainment Supply Chain Assn. Conference here Tuesday, Futuresource predicted that by 2012, Blu-ray software sales will make up half of home entertainment business.
The company downgraded its original expectation of 95 million software units sold this year to 75 million at least partly due to weak software attachment rates to the PlayStation 3, which is the most popular Blu-ray player in households. PS3 owners generally purchase one to two Blu-ray film/TV titles each year, versus the five to eight such titles that Blu-ray set-top-player owners purchase annually.
However, the situation should reverse over the next few years because falling prices will push Blu-ray set-tops, and their strong Blu-ray software consumers, into the dominant position over PS3.
Now, household penetration of high-definition hardware in the U.S. is split 3% set-top and 6% PS3. That will switch in 2012 to 53% set-top and 22% PS3.
“This is all about pricing,” said Alison Casey, Futuresource head of global content. “In 2012, you’ll see entry-level Blu-ray pricing at $50. At that point, Blu-ray will become mass market.”
As the maturing standard-definition DVD market should continue to lose value—down 13% in revenue in the U.S. in 2009, estimates Futuresource—Blu-ray’s momentum will be responsible for stabilizing the category. With Blu-ray software making up 50% of the market in 2012, digital will comprise 29%, split between TV video-on-demand at 16%, online video at 10% and mobile sales at 3%.
“Blu-ray is vital and important to keeping disc volume healthy,” said Casey. “Blu-ray is going to help sustain a flat packaged-media market.”
Futuresource also is optimistic for the business because, the company says, Blu-ray owners are heavy media consumers in general.
When the company recently surveyed consumers, 85% of Blu-ray households said they buy discs versus 62% of non-Blu-ray owners. Also, 81% of Blu-ray owners said they rent discs, compared to 59% of non-owners who said the same. With purchasing new movies online, the breakdown was 11% Blu-ray, 3% non-owners.
Studio executives also are upbeat about Blu-ray’s consumer uptake. Sony Pictures Home Entertainment senior VP Tracey Garvin sees rising attraction for the studio’s BD Live Blu-ray features.
“There have been nearly 5 million people who have visited Sony’s [BD Live Web] portal,” Garvin said during a Tuesday ESCA session moderated by Video Business’ Marcy Magiera. “That’s very, very encouraging.”
She also cites success with an Angels & Demons e-movie cash offer offered via BD Live on Sony’s April 28 Blu-ray release of The Da Vinci Code.
“The redemption rate on that more than doubled what we would normally get if we had stickered the offer on top of the disc package,” said Garvin. |
I'm just not as concerned with VOD as some people seem to be. While something like 60% of the US (20th in the world) has broadband, most of that 60% is like my broadband and sucks ass for VOD. It's also expensive from DirecTV and cable providers compared to Netflix or Redbox. I mean, DirecTV is up to $6 for a PPV rental. $6! Compare that to $14 for a whole month of 4-6 (or more) Blu-ray movies, or a whole pile of them from Redbox (if they get their ass in gear with their rollout plans).
SC
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WanMan
Joined: 19 Mar 2006
Posts: 10270
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| Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2009 4:49 am Post subject: |
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Folks that do not appreciate video fidelity will not care about Blu-ray or any other high definition format. Those too poor are ... well ... poor. I do not see those kiosks being for the videophile, nor have any impact on videophile adoption.
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Trust no one. Absolutely no one. Advice of the board.
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greg_mitch
Joined: 03 May 2006
Posts: 5320
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| Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2009 4:51 am Post subject: |
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| wallace123456 wrote: | Maybe some good news on the way.
I was at the local grocery store here 2 weeks ago. The Red Box guy was there changing out movies and stuff. As I was passing by on my way out, I said, "You guys ought to put BD movies in here". To my suprise, he looked up and smiled and said, "We are going to start putting BD titles as well as games (I think he said X-Box, but don't remember) in very shortly.
We will see.
EDIT: Just found this: http://www.redbox.com/ads/bluray.aspx
Very nice!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
$1.00!!!
wallace |
If the local Hy-Vee's redbox gets BR's, I would likely drop Netflix and just go this route. The monthly payment isn't the best for my sporadic viewing habits.
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ecrabb
Forum Moderator
Joined: 13 Mar 2006
Posts: 15909
Location: Utah
TV/Projector: JVC RS40, Epson 5010
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| Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2009 5:17 am Post subject: |
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| WanMan wrote: | | I do not see those kiosks being for the videophile, nor have any impact on videophile adoption. |
That's probably true, but unfortunately videophiles are such a small market force relative to the overall mass market as to be nearly meaningless. The videophiles were important early-on because they probaably almost single-handedly got the format off the ground, but they're relatively meaningless now in terms of critical-mass large-market adoption... Unfortunately.
SC
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ecrabb
Forum Moderator
Joined: 13 Mar 2006
Posts: 15909
Location: Utah
TV/Projector: JVC RS40, Epson 5010
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| Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2009 5:20 am Post subject: |
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| greg_mitch wrote: | | If the local Hy-Vee's redbox gets BR's, I would likely drop Netflix and just go this route. The monthly payment isn't the best for my sporadic viewing habits. |
Same here (only BlockBuster - I told Netflix to pound sand after they tacked on the "Blu-ray surcharge". But, yeah - I'd dump my BB sub if I could get them from Redbox. I've been watching a few from Family Video, but the selection is pretty thin, which I suspect will be a problem even if Redbox gets them.
SC
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garyfritz
Joined: 08 Apr 2006
Posts: 12088
Location: Fort Collins, CO
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| Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2009 11:40 pm Post subject: |
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Yeah, same with my normal rental source, a local shop. They started carrying BD about 6-8 months ago, but so far they've got a total of maybe 100 titles, vs. 1000's of SD titles.
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WanMan
Joined: 19 Mar 2006
Posts: 10270
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| Posted: Fri Jul 17, 2009 1:30 am Post subject: |
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| ecrabb wrote: | | WanMan wrote: | | I do not see those kiosks being for the videophile, nor have any impact on videophile adoption. |
That's probably true, but unfortunately videophiles are such a small market force relative to the overall mass market as to be nearly meaningless. The videophiles were important early-on because they probaably almost single-handedly got the format off the ground, but they're relatively meaningless now in terms of critical-mass large-market adoption... Unfortunately.
SC |
The point was I didn't see the correlation between the two. When you can buy Harry Potter Blu-ray disks for $11 the whole idea behind a videophile sticking with boring DVDs is benign.
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