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kal
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| Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 3:49 pm Post subject: |
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| MYoung wrote: | | If HD DVD movies were $15 MSRP each instead of $30 MSRP each then people would buy twice as many and feel as though they were getting a great deal! Hell, make them $10 each and sell 3 times as many. I know I would. If these studios want HD to catch on and have people re-buy everything in HD and make a killing all over again, make it affordable! Don't just complete with BD. Compete with DVD too! |
Why would a studio sell HD discs at the same price as their DVDs when HD discs cost so much more to create? They'd be shooting themselves in the foot as there would be less profit. DVD is a cash cow for studios. Why would they kill the cow?
It's a balancing act: Keep the price high enough so that it doesn't hurt DVD sales but low enough to compete in the HD disc marketplace.
Studio's make millions/billions of dollars a year. They have some some pretty highly paid sales, marketing, and accounting people that are playing with these numbers 8+ hours a day to maximize company profits. What they are doing today is verly likely resulting in maximized profits for the company. Maximizing profiles is everything. Nothing else matters to these companies.
Sorry, but I always find it funny when 1 person not related to the industry thinks they know better how to make a multi-billion dollar company more profitable because they're one of the consumers. 
Kal
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kal
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| Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 4:01 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | That's a pretty near-sided conclusion to draw upon. You cannot presume the number of HD DVD movies sold will remain constant if fewer studios are releasing on that format. I predict the decline in sales because people buy movies that they are interested in, not what a studio has to offer. |
Very true. If you look at the numbers, with Warner now 100% Blu-ray exclusive, almost 80% of the top-100 grossing movies of all time are only available on Blu-ray! Almost 80%!
This means that even time someone walks in the door to look for a movie that they're interested in, 4 out of 5 times it'll be on a Blu-ray disc only and not HD-DVD.
Are HD-DVD fans that loyal that they're going to watch things that people generally don't want to watch just to spite Blu-ray?
I'm not being a fan-boy here, I'm just relating the facts.
The numbers are from: http://www.dvdfile.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=6472 (near the bottom of the page).
| Code: | So, just how big is the Warner announcement? Before high definition product was delivered to stores in March of 2006, I examined how the top one hundred grossing films of all time would be distributed among the two formats’ supporters. Since content drives the market, this is a reasonable metric for predicting a format’s success. I updated my data after the Warner announcement and here’s what I found.
Blu-ray Disc Exclusive Titles from the Top 100 Grossing Films of All Time:
Studio Number of Titles Worldwide Gross in Millions
Buena Vista 18 $11,296.1
DreamWorks (Spielberg) 1 $481.8
Fox 22 $12,250.4
Lionsgate 1 $519.8
New Line 3 $2,917.0
Paramount (Spielberg) 3 $1,450.0
Sony 7 $4,880.0
Warner 22 $12,202.8
Totals 77 $45,997.9
HD DVD Exclusive Titles from the Top 100 Grossing Films of All Time:
Studio Number of Titles Worldwide Gross in Millions
DreamWorks 4 $2,394.5
DreamWorks/Paramount 2 $1,504.2
Paramount 7 $4,824.7
Universal* 10 $5,639.1
Totals 23 $14,362.5
*Universal’s numbers include four top-hundred Spielberg titles that grossed $2,796.9 million; it’s unlikely that Spielberg would have restricted the release of his Universal-distributed films on either format at the time Universal’s HD DVD-exclusivity deal was struck, long before product hit the street. But if he now manages to prevent Universal from releasing his films on HD DVD, or insists that they are released on Blu-ray Disc after Universal’s HD DVD contract expires, that will further move the numbers in Blu-ray Disc’s favor and push Universal (at the very least) to format agnosticism. Keep in mind that it’s been widely reported that DreamWorks is not happy with its relationship with Paramount and there have been tentative negotiations for DreamWorks’ return to the Universal fold at the end of 2008’s existing contract period. If Spielberg returns to Universal, this would open all kinds of interesting Blu possibilities. The man has influence.
A title ratio of 77 to 23 is 3.4:1, advantage Blu-ray Disc. Or, to put it another way, Blu-ray Disc now has captured 77% of the top one hundred grossing films of all time. Examining the films’ grosses yields very similar results. $45,997.9 million compared to $14,362.5 million yields a ratio of 3.2:1, advantage Blu-ray Disc. In other words, Blu-ray has captured 76.2% of the titles based on worldwide box office. And since Warner Bros. will be releasing some big titles in 2008 (The Dark Knight, Harry Potter And The Half-Blood Prince, Speed Racer(?) ) and in 2009 (Terminator Salvation: The Future Begins and Superman: Man of Steel), the balance should be maintained or perhaps tilt a little more toward Blu-ray Disc. |
Kal
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kal
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| Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 4:05 pm Post subject: |
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| ronholm wrote: | | And if the analysts are right and Joe "Blow" doesn't buy any movies because he is confused over the very complicated HD vs Blueray" thing... well who cares. " Joe" should probably read a couple books any damn way. |
Who cares? You and I both care! Unless you want HD disc prices to be in the $100-200 range the way they were with Laserdisc, you *want* Joe and Jane 6-pack to buy into HD disc big time. It's the only way to keep costs down, it's the reason why DVD is so cheap. It's the reason why Laserdisc was so expensive.
I don't want to pay $100+ per movie ever again!
Kal
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kal
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| Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 4:11 pm Post subject: |
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More news from this morning (not unexpected):
HBO Confirms Switch to Blu-ray Exclusivity
Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 04:05 PM ET
As expected, HBO Home Video has fallen in line with parent Warner, confirming that it too will drop HD DVD support in favor of Blu-ray.
HBO Home Video president Henry McGee told the Hollywood Reporter today that the company will be "following the same policy as Warner Home Video" and will no longer release titles on HD DVD.
Distributed under the Warner umbrella along with New Line Home Entertainment and BBC Home Video, HBO had been format-neutral, releasing titles in both Blu-ray and HD DVD. Following New Line's move to Blu-ray, HBO now becomes the third Warner company to abandon HD DVD, leaving only the BBC (which Warner distributes domestically) to declare its future format intentions.
McGee offered no further details on the HBO Video's plans to transition to sole Blu-ray support, or the fate of its current HD DVD releases, which include two box set releases of the top-selling 'The Sopranos.'
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ronholm
Joined: 26 Jan 2007
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| Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 4:11 pm Post subject: |
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| kal wrote: | | ronholm wrote: | | And if the analysts are right and Joe "Blow" doesn't buy any movies because he is confused over the very complicated HD vs Blueray" thing... well who cares. " Joe" should probably read a couple books any damn way. |
Who cares? You and I both care! Unless you want HD disc prices to be in the $100-200 range the way they were with Laserdisc, you *want* Joe and Jane 6-pack to buy into HD disc big time. It's the only way to keep costs down, it's the reason why DVD is so cheap. It's the reason why Laserdisc was so expensive.
I don't want to pay $100+ per movie ever again!
Kal |
OK I stand corrected. good point.  But I still say "joe blow should be reading more.
I guess I have not been following this close enough, but the Blue ray format has better than 70 % of the top 100 top selling movies??
WOW..
That is a real arse kicking that has been delivered to the HD format.
Of course though, one would have to consider what percent of the gross (HD/Blueray) sales those "old" movies actually are? Those numbers (and that piece)could be a bit of smoke and mirrors (AKA brand marketing).. I know I personally wouldn't run out and buy ALL of my favorites at 30 bucks a pop for the difference b/t an upscaled video and a HD video... but then again.. I ain't most people?
In the early stages of this thing I would have thought with the "HD" catch word marketing that the "HD" would have carried the advantage.. BUT...... I don't bet on that kind of stuff...
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garyfritz
Joined: 08 Apr 2006
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| Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 4:23 pm Post subject: |
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Damn. I didn't want any of the free HD-DVDs that came with my HD-A2 (probably because all the good movies are on BD, huh Kal?  ) so I was just going to flip them on ebay. Those titles were selling for $12-15 plus shipping, so I figured I could get back at least $50 of the $100 I paid for the player. But I just looked, and prices on ebay are down 20-50%. By the time I actually GET the damn disks, nobody's going to want to buy them any more!! *sigh*
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kal
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| Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 4:35 pm Post subject: |
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| ronholm wrote: | I guess I have not been following this close enough, but the Blue ray format has better than 70 % of the top 100 top selling movies??
WOW..
That is a real arse kicking that has been delivered to the HD format. |
The numbers need to be re-adjusted now that New Line's also Blu-ray exclusive. It was 77%, it's now likely close to or over 80%
Yes, it's a major kick in the arse. This is why most people are basically saying it's all over for HD-DVD ...
| Quote: | | Of course though, one would have to consider what percent of the gross (HD/Blueray) sales those "old" movies actually are? Those numbers (and that piece)could be a bit of smoke and mirrors (AKA brand marketing).. I know I personally wouldn't run out and buy ALL of my favorites at 30 bucks a pop for the difference b/t an upscaled video and a HD video... but then again.. I ain't most people? |
No smoke and mirrors - the numbers aren't numbers made up by the Blu-ray group or anything. They're just the facts.
They don't include FUTURE movies of course, but history has shown that the numbers don't move around very much. What I mean is, if a certain studio owns 20% of the top-100 movies, a few years later they'll still own about the same percentage. It takes decades for this to shift in any appreciable way.
| Quote: | | In the early stages of this thing I would have thought with the "HD" catch word marketing that the "HD" would have carried the advantage.. BUT...... I don't bet on that kind of stuff... |
I thought the same. I thought the name "HD-DVD" was the best idea as it merges two words that people are familiar with so that people know exactly what they're getting while the word "Blu-ray" is meaningless to everyone.
Someone else pointed out that HD-DVD is actually a BAD name since most people already think they *have* high def with their upscaling DVD player. I know a lot of my friends do... the players they own have words like "HD" and "1080p" all over the front of them so people think they already have high-def! The same people then assume that Blu-ray is the "new" thing, whatever that is and don't realize that well, it's just high-def like HD-DVD (which they don't already have!)
I really do believe that typical consumer ignorance had a part to play in the current downfall of HD-DVD, and that same ignorance helped make Blu-ray the success it is today.
Never underestimate the stupidity of the general public. (and/or the power of marketing)
Kal
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ecrabb
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| Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 4:41 pm Post subject: |
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| garyfritz wrote: | | But I just looked, and prices on ebay are down 20-50%. By the time I actually GET the damn disks, nobody's going to want to buy them any more!! *sigh* |
OK, THAT really is stupid. I guess it just goes to show much 'mentality' is a part of the equation. Looks like it's time for me to start watching fleabay and buy a few more HD-DVDs I'd been holding off to buy.
The fact that a few more studios decided to go Blu-balls exclusively doesn't make the HD-DVD's worth any LESS to me as part of a collection!!!
SC
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kal
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ronholm
Joined: 26 Jan 2007
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| Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 4:45 pm Post subject: |
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| kal wrote: |
Never underestimate the stupidity of the general public. (and/or the power of marketing)
Kal |
| Quote: |
No smoke and mirrors - the numbers aren't numbers made up by the Blu-ray group or anything. They're just the facts.
They don't include FUTURE movies of course, but history has shown that the numbers don't move around very much. What I mean is, if a certain studio owns 20% of the top-100 movies, a few years later they'll still own about the same percentage. It takes decades for this to shift in any appreciable way. |
I didn't mean to say that they were making stuff up.. Just placing importance on sales numbers that may not effect the bottom line as much as they are trying to claim.. I just thought it sounded like they were claiming the win before the fight is over(Which is often a damn good way to win the fight)
But if you are correct about the trend of title ownership continuing (if there is such thing as predicting a long term trend in that business)... And they are losing major outlets like Warner.... Well RIP HD.
[/quote]
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jask
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| Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 5:02 pm Post subject: |
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even Microsoft is now "open to the idea" of Blu-ray on game consoles! I love my LG combo drive, now I need to go pick up some bargoon HD-DVDs on ebay!!
just saw an ad for the LG home combo player in a flyer for 788$ how soon do you think that price will be dropping!!?
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kal
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WanMan
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| Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 5:16 pm Post subject: |
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I am a consumer and have never bought and consumed anything from *******. In fact, their revenue is down.
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emdawgz1
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| Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 5:18 pm Post subject: |
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Whats that ????
The nail in the coffin.
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MYoung
Joined: 24 Feb 2007
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| Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 5:23 pm Post subject: |
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| kal wrote: |
Why would a studio sell HD discs at the same price as their DVDs when HD discs cost so much more to create? They'd be shooting themselves in the foot as there would be less profit. DVD is a cash cow for studios. Why would they kill the cow?
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They aren't charging people more for HD because it costs so much more to produce. I'm sure many of their films are already in a HD digital format of some kind, antipicating the move to HD movie sales and for preservation of their films. They are charging more for HD because they think it's worth that to consumers. What they don't seem to understand, in my opinion, is that you need to get people hooked on the new format. Lowering media prices for a while to get the format going would do that. Sure, there are the promo discs, but extend it and get people hooked! It works for drugs, why not movies? The other option is to have HD media stay expensive and have people keep buying DVDs for $10 each or less and continue to have pathetic sales of HD and bleed more money. Oh yeah, that's what's happening right now.
How much more expensive is it to create a HD DVD verses a DVD? It certainly cannot be orders of magnitude. Do you not remember that a strength of HD DVD is lower production costs? I think studio worries come from the fact that there's an order of magnitude more DVD players out there than HD DVD players, not the cost of producing HD DVDs.
| kal wrote: |
It's a balancing act: Keep the price high enough so that it doesn't hurt DVD sales but low enough to compete in the HD disc marketplace.
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If HD DVD or BD sales was to hurt DVD sales then the studios should be happy! It would mean that they are reselling movies to the consumer that they probably already bought on DVD!!! Do you not understand the huge profit potential of reselling movies on HD? The studios should kill DVD!
| kal wrote: |
Studio's make millions/billions of dollars a year. They have some some pretty highly paid sales, marketing, and accounting people that are playing with these numbers 8+ hours a day to maximize company profits. What they are doing today is verly likely resulting in maximized profits for the company. Maximizing profiles is everything. Nothing else matters to these companies.
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Yeah, that marketing is working really well with everyone so confused about HD! So because they employ such people to maximize profits they are indeed succeeding at that? Are you talking about the same highly paid professionals from Dreamworks, 20th Century Fox, and Paramount Pictures who jumped onboard with DIVX in 1998?
| kal wrote: |
Sorry, but I always find it funny when 1 person not related to the industry thinks they know better how to make a multi-billion dollar company more profitable because they're one of the consumers.
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I have a Comm. Arts major in TV/Radio/Film, so it's not like I know nothing. So you think Warner's dumping of HD DVD after record sales of HD DVD hardware over the holiday season was a great move? I don't have a MBA, but I think it would have made more sense to wait it out a bit longer to see what these player sales would have yielded in disc sales. Besides, Warner was already releasing in BD. It's not like they are going to see a huge increase in sales immediately with dropping HD DVD. If BD catches on, then perhaps they'll see something. Time will tell. But in the meantime, they've made enemies with lots of HD DVD player owners. Oh, but Warner's highly paid execs cannot make a mistake because they're well paid! Riiight.
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ecrabb
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| Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 5:59 pm Post subject: |
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Exactly. If "smart" people with MBA's, fancy suits, and big salaries making decisions guaranteed success, big businesses would never fail! They do though, don't they?
I know what you mean Kal regarding Mike and others second-guessing the experts... But, consider for a moment the RIAA and record labels on the issue of prosecuting music consumers. They have completely obliterated any sympathy whatsoever the consumer might have ever had for their plight.
Personally, I'm very clear about the 'right' and 'wrong' of sharing music and have never done so. But when the record companies (via the RIAA) started suing consumers for sharing, and then had the unmitigated BALLS to sue them even for loading music off CD's they BOUGHT onto their iPod... I've completely had it with them. I have no more sympathy. Not only will I not purchase any more music from a label associated with the RIAA, I will give away as many copies to friends and family as time allows - whenever possible. Unfortunately, for the major labels, they've unwittingly started a war which can only have one loser - them. The rumor is that Warner Music isn't far off from bankruptcy. If things keep going the way they are, many more labels aren't behind.
What's sad about the whole thing is if the labels would have disbanded the RIAA, FIRED the sh*t-bag attorneys, and simply lowered the retail price on CDs a few bucks, they probably cold have stemmed the tide of online music sharing.
That was a little off-topic, but it's my example of what the 'experts' can do with a situation. Mike's point is valid. The experts may have analyzed the profit curve to death, and completely, utterly missed the larger picture. It doesn't matter, though. They still take their six-figure salaries home whether the latest greatest HDM format takes off or not.
SC
EDIT - The story I saw a month or so ago where the RIAA sued a guy for ripping music to his iPod was inaccurate. In following up, it looks like the guy ripped music to his hard drive to a "My Music" folder to sync with a portable player. Later, he installed Kazaa (presumably to download stuff - legit or not), and inadvertendly shared his "My Music" folder. That's how h was busted. My point stands. The 'experts' are sometimes complete idiots.
Last edited by ecrabb on Thu Jan 10, 2008 6:13 pm; edited 1 time in total
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kal
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| Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 6:09 pm Post subject: |
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| MYoung wrote: | | They aren't charging people more for HD because it costs so much more to produce. |
Sure they are, to some degree, but I agree that they're basically charging more because they can.
Most movies are already scanned in 4K long ago so the masters are there. But the following is all new costs as compared to DVD:
(1) New HD disc replication centers or existing replication center upgrades need to be paid for/amortized.
(2) New Audio formats need to be mastered. They're not allowed to use basic DD/DTS based on the HD-DVD and Blu-ray standards.
(3) Yieldes are incredibly low compared to DVD so cost per disc is much higher. The more you produce the cheaper it is per unit.
(4) New authoring tools for menus and disc compression, editing, etc need to be paid for/amortized.
(5) Probably other things I'm not thinking of since I'm not in the video reproduction business myself ...
| MYoung wrote: | | If HD DVD or BD sales was to hurt DVD sales then the studios should be happy! It would mean that they are reselling movies to the consumer that they probably already bought on DVD!!! Do you not understand the huge profit potential of reselling movies on HD? The studios should kill DVD! |
HD disc sales is a drop in the bucket as compared to DVD because well, there are 1000x times more SD-DVD capable displays/players in homes as compared to HD capable displays/players.
You can't be serious. They should completely get rid of DVD when 99% of the population has DVD playback equipment and less than 1% of the population has HD disc playback equipment?
If DVDs completely stop being made, everyone's going to rush out and spend $2000+ on HDTV's and HD disc players so that they can continue to watch movies? Seriously? That pay per view/on demand content will start to look pretty attractive to the average consumer methinks if all of a sudden all DVD sales are stopped.
| MYoung wrote: | | I have a Comm. Arts major in TV/Radio/Film, so it's not like I know nothing. |
Marketing and sales baby. The suggestions you've been making have everything to do with marketing and sales and absolutely nothing to do with the production of the actual content (which is your background).
| MYoung wrote: | | So you think Warner's dumping of HD DVD after record sales of HD DVD hardware over the holiday season was a great move? |
I have no idea as I know little about marketing/sales. Again, I just always find it funny when people who only know 1% of the issues involved and do not have a background in the subject always know the answers better than the people who work in the industry and have to deal with the 1000's of variables involved.
I don't know the answers. I don't pretend to know the answers since what I *DO* know is that I likely only know 1% of the issues involved since I'm not involved in these decisions. How can I possibly know the best choices when I'm even involved at all.
| Quote: | | Oh, but Warner's highly paid execs cannot make a mistake because they're well paid! Riiight. |
*sigh* That's not what I said. Salary makes no difference. Everyone makes mistakes.
What I'm saying is that everything always looks so straightforward when you're not involved in the middle of things since you only see the clean and polished exterior and none of the day to day issues/complications. You can bet that there are thousands of issues and variables involved in each decision that these exec's make every day.
I know you probably don't believe this, but most CEO's are not stupid people. You don't get up to a $20-100M/year salary by being stupid. You get there by having a track record of making a lot of money for a lot of different companies. Those that can't do that, don't make it up that high in the ranks.
Sorry, but your comments seem like the typical "I know better than all the CEO's and Executives out there" which frankly is just silly since none of us can possibly know better since well, we likely know less than 1% of the issues/complications.
Kal
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MYoung
Joined: 24 Feb 2007
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| Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 6:43 pm Post subject: |
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Now I'm off-topic! I think we can all agree that both HD formats are content starved. I'd like to see independent and student filmmakers shoot in HD or get an HD transfer of their films and release HD on DVD-R or whatever format wins. Maybe that's already happening a little? I'll have to research that. Why do the big studios have to be the one and only content providers? It seemed that HD DVD was more friendly to that independent release notion with their "3x DVD" format. I know that Blu-ray also has BD9, which is similar. Now I feel like getting back into stop motion animation and doing up some 3x DVD HD DVDs! It would be a niche market but I have no marketing execs to pay six figure salaries to!
Okay, another fringe suggestion for Toshiba and the HD DVD camp (because I know Kal enjoys these). Get all the really small filmmakers and animators on board with HD DVD! Make the authoring polished, dirt cheap, and accessible. Have a giant film festival and release winning entries on HD DVD! Open the independent HD DVD and 3x DVD floodgates! The studios probably wouldn't like that, but at this rate, they'll all be in the Blu-ray camp anyway. Ha, ha! That's the "sick of the same old crap movies from Hollywood" in me talking. There's lots of really great content out there that didn't come from a major studio.
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greg_mitch
Joined: 03 May 2006
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| Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 7:04 pm Post subject: |
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This is not new news. We have known for quite some time that a BD add-on was possible.
They have no plans at this time unless Toshiba calls it quits.
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greg_mitch
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| Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 7:11 pm Post subject: |
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| kal wrote: | | MYoung wrote: | | They aren't charging people more for HD because it costs so much more to produce. |
Sure they are, to some degree, but I agree that they're basically charging more because they can.
Most movies are already scanned in 4K long ago so the masters are there. But the following is all new costs as compared to DVD:
(1) New HD disc replication centers or existing replication center upgrades need to be paid for/amortized.
(2) New Audio formats need to be mastered. They're not allowed to use basic DD/DTS based on the HD-DVD and Blu-ray standards.
(3) Yieldes are incredibly low compared to DVD so cost per disc is much higher. The more you produce the cheaper it is per unit.
(4) New authoring tools for menus and disc compression, editing, etc need to be paid for/amortized.
(5) Probably other things I'm not thinking of since I'm not in the video reproduction business myself ...
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Don't these same costs apply to BD? But #1 has proven to be considerably larger for BD!
Terrible idea to drop DVD and just release HD DVD.
EXCELLENT idea to stop releasing DVD's and start only releasing Twin discs!
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