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Curt Palme
CRT Tech
Joined: 08 Mar 2006
Posts: 24396
Location: Langley, BC
TV/Projector: All of them!
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| Posted: Thu Oct 18, 2007 12:52 pm Post subject: |
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Hey, I don't take offense with Oliver's post. I made exactly that choice a couple of months ago. I bought a $199 Toshiba 1080i A2. As I tell people: "It's the single largest improvement I've ever made to my HT. Yes, my HD box gives the same output quality, but I usually watch more DVDs than TV with HD content.
My deciding factor? Price. For $199, the Toshiba can last 18 months, and it it sells 3 projectors, it's paid for itself.
As expected, I watched King Kong and Italian Job, and I haven't turned the unit on since. Blood Diamond, the third DVD I bought is still in the wrapper.
Things like dissecting the audio track content is reserved for us geeks only, the other 99.99992% od BR/HD DVD owners would have no idea what Kal's first post was about.
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ecrabb
Forum Moderator
Joined: 13 Mar 2006
Posts: 15909
Location: Utah
TV/Projector: JVC RS40, Epson 5010
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| Posted: Thu Oct 18, 2007 3:37 pm Post subject: |
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| Curt Palme wrote: | | Things like dissecting the audio track content is reserved for us geeks only, the other 99.99992% od BR/HD DVD owners would have no idea what Kal's first post was about. |
What an understatement that is, Curt. I have a lot of friends (no joke!) - almost all of whom have significantly less technical knowledge, ability and interest than do I. It makes for some conversations sometimes because I occasionally end up the tech "go-to guy". Here's a funny anecdote that really says it all:
I have one friend whom I had to show how to turn on bitstream output on his DVD player... he was getting PCM stereo and pro-logic surround before I turned it on. He now mentions the "blue light" all the time to refer his technical ineptitude. (When I turned on bitstream output, his Sony receiver started lighting up a blue indicator for digital surround modes. He'd never seen it before.)
I have another friend who'd been listening to his DVD player and HD satellite box via stereo analog with ProLogic surround... on his full digital surround receiver... for over a year. I'd never been over to see his system. I heard it, knew right away it wasn't discrete, corrected it and blew his mind.
We've all heard the stories about the people who can't understand why they can't the high-def picture to work right... even though they have their source connected via composite or s-video.
That's the reality. There's us enthusiasts that really want to optimize picture quality, sound quality, the whole experience. Then, there's the other 90% of the population that doesn't want to know anything about the technology. They just want to pop a disc in and watch whatever they rented from the movie store.
Stuff like advanced audio codecs and lossless audio is for 10% of the buying public - it's the "laserdisc" of the HD video world. Extras and bonus material on the other hand are for the 50% of people who like them. Guess which thing will win most of the time?
SC
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oliverg
Joined: 15 May 2007
Posts: 800
Location: Melbourne, Australia
TV/Projector: Sony G90 X2 - Vidikron Vision 1
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| Posted: Thu Oct 18, 2007 5:07 pm Post subject: |
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| ecrabb wrote: | | Stuff like advanced audio codecs and lossless audio is for 10% of the buying public - it's the "laserdisc" of the HD video world. Extras and bonus material on the other hand are for the 50% of people who like them. Guess which thing will win most of the time? |
Well said eCrab.
Curt is right too, 99.9% of the consumer race have no idea what us enthusiasts talk about.
| greg_mitch wrote: |
Just because you have a dual player or both players does not make you format neutral. You have a blu-ray bias it sounds. You also just have more expendable money than others. |
Actually, that's not true. If HD-DVD has a title I want, I buy it. It just doesn't happen as often and most of my titles are BR.
The fact is, I AM neutral but I can see the market trends.
Worldwide, BR will end up outselling HD-DVD on a permanent basis - numerically there are more stuidios supporting it and they are the bigger industry players. This isnt' me being biased, its just math. Look at titles that come out on both formats like 300. Sales are so far 3 to 1 in favour of BR. The longer this goes on for, the bigger the sales lead BR will enjoy.
Just because I point this out, people who are HD-DVD fanbois get all tied up in a knot about it and accuse me of bias.
I couldn't care less who wins or loses but this format war wont be "won" by us hobbyists. It will be won by the Mr and Mrs Joe average with their 2 kids and they don't like five letter acronyms - they like funky cool names like "Bluray" which is exactly why Sony chose the name.
I don't think HD-DVD will ever die - but it will never enjoy the market share and penetration that BR enjoys unless more studios decide to support BR. Traditionally, this hasn't happened so far. Hell, even Apple - who held out until they could see which format was a clear market leader went BR.
You can acuse me of being biased all you like - but I assure you, my observations are made with a very objective eye. I would be saying the same things about HD-DVD if I thought it had any chance of achieving market dominance. Fact is, if I had to bet a million dollars on which format would be the most prevailant in sales over the next 10 years, I would bet all I had on BR and I'm not even a gambling man.Furthermore, if it REALLY came down to it, most HD-DVD exclusive supporters would bet the same way if they were actually honest to themselves and managed to avoid getting defensive and reading information that they didn't like.
Fanbois of either side usually just read what they want to see and their opinion is usually subject to self denial . I read both sides and suffer no such emotion.
I would also bet that HD-DVD will continue to exist but it will be the "Apple" of the HD format arena and never enjoy a decisive lead but have a dedicated and loyal following.
The emergence of dual format players and dual format discs (HD-DVD on one side, BR on the other) will render the war a moot point in any case. If anything, all manufacturers that aren't Sony and Toshiba will eventually be flooding the market with cheap dual format players/writers
Until the next formats are released 
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greg_mitch
Joined: 03 May 2006
Posts: 5320
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| Posted: Thu Oct 18, 2007 6:15 pm Post subject: |
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Market analyst? You read a bunch of blogs and you can dissect the market trends? Nielson ratings?
When you say ratios...or when anyone says ratios it is important to put it in context.
Say movie one sells the following:
blu-ray - 15 copies
hd-dvd - 5 copies
This is a 3:1 ratio.
Say another movie sells the following:
format 1 - 15,000,000 copies
format 2 - 5,000,000 copies
This is a 3:1 ratio also, but greatly different when taken in correct context. The fact is that all HDM is selling at such a snail's pace that we will all be lucky if online media doesnt overtake both.
I keep seeing 2:1 and 3:1 ratios and people get all worked up about them. Let's go off of numbers and not ratios to really see how far HDM is behind DVD's.
I predict both formats keep 'fighting' until broadband internet is widespread enough to have streaming HD to every house.
How many exclusive titles are from both sides? Does blu-ray have such an 'advantage' in exclusivity as you would have us believe?
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greg_mitch
Joined: 03 May 2006
Posts: 5320
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| Posted: Thu Oct 18, 2007 11:10 pm Post subject: |
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From AVS...I have not verified the numbers...but trust them quite a bit.
____________________________________________________________
I think this list is accurate as of late 2006 is what the thread says:
HD DVD 16743 Total (10631 exclusive)
Blu-ray 17392 (was 22866) total (11280 exclusive) Blu-ray loses 5474 releases
Common 6112 21.8 % (was 41 %) HD DVD 10631 37.9% ( was 18.4%) Blu-ray 11280 40.3% (was 40.3%)
Total titles: 28,023
6112 is 21.8% Common
10631 is 37.9% HD-DVD
11280 is 40.3% Blu-ray
_____________________________________________________
Also marketshare....
Market Share for Each Distributor in 2007 to date
Rank // # of releases // 2007 Gross Sales // # Tickets Sold // Market Share %
1 Paramount Pictures 14 $1,170,955,518 178,771,835 17.77%
2 Buena Vista 16 $941,476,021 143,736,796 14.29%
3 Warner Bros. 21 $927,730,279 141,638,212 14.08%
4 Sony Pictures 15 $816,196,229 124,610,110 12.39%
5 Universal 12 $740,055,185 112,985,524 11.23%
6 20th Century Fox 17 $698,616,647 106,659,029 10.60%
7 New Line 9 $296,879,983 45,325,188 4.51%
8 Weinstein Co. 12 $127,804,991 19,512,211 1.94%
9 Sony/Screen Gems 3 $115,717,898 17,666,855 1.76%
10 Lionsgate 14 $112,945,103 17,243,527 1.71%
17.77% Paramount
11.23% Universal
===========
29.00% HD DVD
14.29% Buena Vista (Disney)
12.39% Sony
10.60% Fox
==========
37.28% Blu-ray
33.72% Neutral
________________________________________________________
Also top movies....
Sony studios had 7 of the top 15 movies of 2006 (theater gross). Paramount only held the #10 and #13 spots. Universal didn't make the top 15. Paramount and Universal are the only hd-dvd exclusives. Blu-ray exclusive studios had 11 of the top 15.
Blu-ray exclusive studios are Sony, Disney/Buena Vista, MGM, Lionsgate, and 20th Century Fox.
Box Office 2006 Source: Box Office Mojo
Position Title Studio Domestic Gross
1 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest BV $423,315,812
2 Cars BV $244,082,982
3 X-Men III: The Last Stand Fox $234,362,462
4 The Da Vinci Code Sony $217,536,138
5 Superman Returns WB $200,081,192
6 Ice Age: The Meltdown Fox $195,330,621
7 Happy Feet WB $185,625,671
8 Night at the Museum Fox $165,150,384
9 Casino Royale Sony $160,047,891
10 Over the Hedge P/DW $155,019,34
11 Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby Sony $148,213,377
12 Click Sony $137,340,146
13 Mission: Impossible III Par. $133,501,348
14 Borat Fox $126,598,982
15 The Pursuit of Happyness Sony $124,834,524
_________________________________________________________
So which stats is the most important? Recent movies? Blockbusters? Quantity of movies released? Quality of catalog titles?
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WanMan
Joined: 19 Mar 2006
Posts: 10270
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| Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2007 10:34 am Post subject: |
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More expendable money than others? To acquire both players on their initial release date would have cost you in the neighborhood of $1500. Since some pay as little as $700 for new equipment and cover both grounds shouldn't be interpreted as necessarily being a household with a lot of disposable income.
Also, going from DVD-->HD DVD/Blu-ray isn't a poor man's game. Its assumed from the get-go that if you wanna play in that arena you have the money to do so. I am one of the poorest on this forum and even I can cover both formats. Of course, I waited a year before buying (and spent half what others did).
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greg_mitch
Joined: 03 May 2006
Posts: 5320
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| Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2007 12:52 pm Post subject: |
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wrong terminology....not more income but have allocated more proportionally to this hobby.
maybe you are the poorest but a larger percentage of your money is devoted to the HDM war than mine i would bet.
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oliverg
Joined: 15 May 2007
Posts: 800
Location: Melbourne, Australia
TV/Projector: Sony G90 X2 - Vidikron Vision 1
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| Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2007 12:59 pm Post subject: |
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Exactly - as I mentioned, enthusiasts aren't going to win this war. It will be Mr and Mrs Joe Average.
You could be poor but a member of the Rolls Royce club. All your money is spent on your Rolls Royce. But as it happens people that have more money are usually the ones that buy Rolls Royces.
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WanMan
Joined: 19 Mar 2006
Posts: 10270
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| Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2007 3:17 pm Post subject: |
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After the DVD-A/SACD fiasco I didn't even bother to try adopting a side in any format war. While I still hedge on optical media over tape (when talking about video), I am more than willing not to wait out the +5 years for the current combatants to resolve and simply looked at titles I am interest in. If a title is available at both, sure bet I'll ask if a difference in PQ is there, and if not if something special is available on one over the other, but other than that maybe pricing my be a deciding factor--but not format.
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oliverg
Joined: 15 May 2007
Posts: 800
Location: Melbourne, Australia
TV/Projector: Sony G90 X2 - Vidikron Vision 1
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| Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2007 3:28 pm Post subject: |
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I'm convinced that delivery of content via the internet will grow to a point that may one day challenge physical media but that is at least 5 years, mayebe even a decade off. "Prefetch" will be the delivery transport of choice - content will be "pushed" onto PVRs/media boxes, ready for your selection. Even if you only watch 1-2 movies a month, your whole selection will be sitting there waiting for you.
The issue with that is bandwidth. I'm sitting here on a 30Mb link but in Australia we have to pay for usage. My overuse charges are about 19C per MB - in this country media prefetch would require a paradigm shift in the way ISPs in Australia charge. In alot of outehr countries, this doesn't happen - but I understand that the majority of the world is still on dial up and the average connection speed for broadband is still 512/128. Try downloading 30/50Gb at those speeds 
When the majority of the world has FTTN and 100Gb connections along with universal flat rate ISP subscriptions - the HDM world will change dramatically. But by that time, the new dual format BR/HD-DVD discs will be a reality, as will dual format players 
You know what guys, I can't wait!!! We live in interesting times!
Kind regards
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kal
Forum Administrator
Joined: 06 Mar 2006
Posts: 18114
Location: Ottawa, Canada
TV/Projector: JVC DLA-NZ7
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| Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2007 6:32 pm Post subject: |
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While I do think that movie content over broadband will continue to grow, I hold ZERO hope that it'll be done in a quality that works for our large screens.
Look at HDTV now - most HD channels I get over Bell ExpressVu are so overly compressed that macroblocking during fast scenes in the norm. My wife doesn't even notice them but I certainly do.
I've been watching broadcast HD for years now but am finally happy to get HD on disc because while it's still compressed, the publishers don't seem to be going overboard. With TV and it's limited bandwidth, it's always more important to get MORE channels than BETTER video quality.
Kal
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oliverg
Joined: 15 May 2007
Posts: 800
Location: Melbourne, Australia
TV/Projector: Sony G90 X2 - Vidikron Vision 1
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| Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2007 6:37 pm Post subject: |
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You definately have a point with regard to compression. Your point about more channels rather than video quality is dead on too.
We have only one real player for cable TV in the Australian market. Its called Foxtel. The "B" grade channels are all so heavily compressed that I squirm.
Like you, none of my partners notice. My ex-wife used to think I was seeing things that weren't there but she watches whole movies on her IPod...!!
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kal
Forum Administrator
Joined: 06 Mar 2006
Posts: 18114
Location: Ottawa, Canada
TV/Projector: JVC DLA-NZ7
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| Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2007 7:23 pm Post subject: |
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| oliverg wrote: | | You definately have a point with regard to compression. Your point about more channels rather than video quality is dead on too. |
That's the problem. And I never see the mantra of people wanting more quantity over quality ever changing too. So even 50 years from now when we all have wireless 1000 terrabyte/second connections to your our house, we'll just have more content instead of better content.
Long story short: I never see myself preferring over the air/wire broadcasts over being able to buy a physical disc.
Kal
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greg_mitch
Joined: 03 May 2006
Posts: 5320
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| Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2007 10:02 pm Post subject: |
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| kal wrote: | | oliverg wrote: | | You definately have a point with regard to compression. Your point about more channels rather than video quality is dead on too. |
That's the problem. And I never see the mantra of people wanting more quantity over quality ever changing too. So even 50 years from now when we all have wireless 1000 terrabyte/second connections to your our house, we'll just have more content instead of better content.
Long story short: I never see myself preferring over the air/wire broadcasts over being able to buy a physical disc.
Kal |
Certainly not mainstream but I can definitely see a niche provider like say, "HD Netflix" streaming high quality HD to homes for a monthly fee. Kind of like Voom maybe? Well not like how they went belly up but the concept...all HD.
Can we agree that the longer the "war" goes on, the better it is for blu-ray since the price is becoming less of an issue? If there is a blu-ray player for $250 I will probably save up and buy in. [computer drives dont count].
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AnalogRocks
Forum Moderator
Joined: 08 Mar 2006
Posts: 26706
Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
TV/Projector: Sony 1252Q, AMPRO 4000G
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| Posted: Sat Oct 20, 2007 2:14 am Post subject: |
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| greg_mitch wrote: | | kal wrote: | | oliverg wrote: | | You definately have a point with regard to compression. Your point about more channels rather than video quality is dead on too. |
That's the problem. And I never see the mantra of people wanting more quantity over quality ever changing too. So even 50 years from now when we all have wireless 1000 terrabyte/second connections to your our house, we'll just have more content instead of better content.
Long story short: I never see myself preferring over the air/wire broadcasts over being able to buy a physical disc.
Kal |
Certainly not mainstream but I can definitely see a niche provider like say, "HD Netflix" streaming high quality HD to homes for a monthly fee. Kind of like Voom maybe? Well not like how they went belly up but the concept...all HD.
Can we agree that the longer the "war" goes on, the better it is for blu-ray since the price is becoming less of an issue? If there is a blu-ray player for $250 I will probably save up and buy in. [computer drives dont count]. |
Just wondering why don't computer drives count?
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ecrabb
Forum Moderator
Joined: 13 Mar 2006
Posts: 15909
Location: Utah
TV/Projector: JVC RS40, Epson 5010
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| Posted: Sat Oct 20, 2007 2:27 am Post subject: |
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Probably because you need another $500-1000+ worth of hardware and software to use the computer drive.
SC
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greg_mitch
Joined: 03 May 2006
Posts: 5320
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| Posted: Sat Oct 20, 2007 3:37 am Post subject: |
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Exactly my xp3000+ and nvidia 5600 utlra aint gonna cut it!
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kschmit2
Joined: 09 Mar 2006
Posts: 1141
Location: Heidelberg, Germany
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| Posted: Sat Oct 20, 2007 9:06 am Post subject: |
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Greg, your Athlon XP 3000+ with an ATI HD 2600 card will be fast enough for both Blu-ray and HD DVD.
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ecrabb
Forum Moderator
Joined: 13 Mar 2006
Posts: 15909
Location: Utah
TV/Projector: JVC RS40, Epson 5010
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| Posted: Sat Oct 20, 2007 2:50 pm Post subject: |
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OK, assuming you don't factor in what he already had to spend on the system, then it's $100 for a new video card, $75 for software, $250 for a BD player... we're up to $425 now just to add BD playback to an existing capable system.... as much as a BDP-S300.
Don't get me wrong - I like HTPC - it just definitely isn't economical right now to add HD playback - even compared to standalone... ESPECIALLY if you add in what the system costs.
That's OT, anyway. Greg's simply saying he'll buy a standalone BD player when they're <$250. That's about my threshold, too.
SC
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greg_mitch
Joined: 03 May 2006
Posts: 5320
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| Posted: Sat Oct 20, 2007 3:16 pm Post subject: |
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Kai are you serious! I thought a dual core processor was mandatory. Either way, as ecrabb stated. I would rather have a standalone that anyone can run besides an HTPC that constantly has issues.
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