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| What is the future of blu-ray? |
| Takes off within 2 years and becomes the primary media distribution option for several years |
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39% |
[ 9 ] |
| Takes off within 3-5 years and becomes the primary media distribution option for several years |
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30% |
[ 7 ] |
| Never becomes the dominant media distribution mechanism as is just "one of many" before its end of life |
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4% |
[ 1 ] |
| Is supplanted by HD VOD before it takes off and it becomes a niche format |
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8% |
[ 2 ] |
| Never really takes off and dies within 5-7 years |
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17% |
[ 4 ] |
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| Total Votes : 23 |
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Message |
kal
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| Posted: Wed Dec 03, 2008 5:02 pm Post subject: |
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| Person99 wrote: | | This is why I think this is the future--it is too good to pass up. People will happily sacrifice quality for better. Hell, look at iTunes and MP3 players. They've almost completely killed off CDs. I still can't understand why anyone in their right mind thinks that even though this happened with audio it will not happen with video. |
I know. I agree. And i'm afraid. Please god, let's not drop the ball on quality.
Kal
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Person99
Joined: 09 Mar 2006
Posts: 4899
Location: Flower Mound, TX
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| Posted: Wed Dec 03, 2008 5:58 pm Post subject: |
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| kal wrote: | | Person99 wrote: | | This is why I think this is the future--it is too good to pass up. People will happily sacrifice quality for better. Hell, look at iTunes and MP3 players. They've almost completely killed off CDs. I still can't understand why anyone in their right mind thinks that even though this happened with audio it will not happen with video. |
I know. I agree. And i'm afraid. Please god, let's not drop the ball on quality.
Kal |
You and me both buddy. What I'm afraid of is that BD becomes a niche product similar to LaserDisc. As such, pricing will never get better. Also, it might not be worth it for brick and mortars to rent them. In fact, once electronic distribution really catches on, the local rental places (i.e. Blockbuster) will close many locations. Then we will have to buy all the movies we want or wait for them from Netflix or the like further entrenching it as a niche market.
So, I think we will have access to full quality content, I just don't think it will be as easy as I have it now--driving < 3 miles to one of two Blockbuster's to rent a BD (as I've done in the last three weeks with Hancock, Tropic Thunder, etc).
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Dave
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WanMan
Joined: 19 Mar 2006
Posts: 10270
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| Posted: Wed Dec 03, 2008 6:30 pm Post subject: |
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The problem with VOD like PPV is that you can no longer keep what you paid for on your DBS DVR.
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Person99
Joined: 09 Mar 2006
Posts: 4899
Location: Flower Mound, TX
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| Posted: Wed Dec 03, 2008 6:46 pm Post subject: |
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| WanMan wrote: | | The problem with VOD like PPV is that you can no longer keep what you paid for on your DBS DVR. |
I don't follow. People rent way more movies at Blockbuster and Netflix than they buy. They can't keep those. Since people have already established that they prefer rental, I don't understand your argument which seems to be "People don't want VOD because it is only renting."
This whole thread is not about what you like or what you will do, it is much bigger than you--it is about what will happen in the industry. I'm just saying peoples behavior has already set a precedent that points to the fact that BD will not be a widespread success IMO.
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Dave
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WanMan
Joined: 19 Mar 2006
Posts: 10270
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| Posted: Wed Dec 03, 2008 10:48 pm Post subject: |
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I'm not the one making analogy between DVD and HD--I believe that was someone else. I'm making the case that to the purest they simply are not going to trust streaming vendors, including VOD/PPV. Now, I may be an analogy, here, because I don't rent movies. If I see something that I think I'd like, I buy it on the best available media I can barring its not tape. If I am wrong and it turns out that I do not like it I get rid of it and cut my losses.
Too many examples in which the cable and satellite companies have abused customers in the paid-for market. Of course the cowsumers that continue to support the cable and satellite industries will probably support BD--to my benefit. 
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Person99
Joined: 09 Mar 2006
Posts: 4899
Location: Flower Mound, TX
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| Posted: Wed Dec 03, 2008 11:47 pm Post subject: |
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| WanMan wrote: | | I'm making the case that to the purest they simply are not going to trust streaming vendors, including VOD/PPV. |
I completely agree. But the purest represents 2-5% of the market. The purest wouldn't listen to MP3s either, but iTunes, et al have almost completely killed other mediums.
| WanMan wrote: | | Too many examples in which the cable and satellite companies have abused customers in the paid-for market. Of course the cowsumers that continue to support the cable and satellite industrie |
Exactly my point. DirecTV is not going out of business due to crappy PQ. So what does that tell you about consumer behavior?
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Dave
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wallace123456
Joined: 14 Aug 2006
Posts: 2236
Location: Northwest VA area
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| Posted: Thu Dec 04, 2008 1:07 am Post subject: |
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My vote is: Never really takes off and dies within 5-7 years.
But then this option is like an oxy-moron. In today's technology world, I can't see anything here today, but not being replaced within 5-7 years.
5-7 years from now??? Come on. I suppose someone thinks we are at a stand-still or lull in technology advancements?
I say more like, it's the mode of delivery for a few more years. It wont "die off"; it will be replaced.
wallace
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Person99
Joined: 09 Mar 2006
Posts: 4899
Location: Flower Mound, TX
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| Posted: Thu Dec 04, 2008 1:20 am Post subject: |
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| wallace123456 wrote: | My vote is: Never really takes off and dies within 5-7 years.
But then this option is like an oxy-moron. In today's technology world, I can't see anything here today, but not being replaced within 5-7 years.
5-7 years from now??? Come on. I suppose someone thinks we are at a stand-still or lull in technology advancements?
I say more like, it's the mode of delivery for a few more years. It wont "die off"; it will be replaced.
wallace |
DVD has been around for about 13 years and shows no sign of dying off soon. This option was supposed to mean that it just kind of flops around and dies before it hits 10 years old--sort of like LaserDisc (although it lasted a bit over 20 years thanks to Japanese adoption rates).
At the rate of adoption, there is no friggin' way it will be replaced before another 8+ years. People will not buy BD players then be happy to replace them 3-4 year later. Heck, most homes will not even have a blu-ray player for at least 2-3 years from now, no way they are going to be willing to replace them 1-2 years after buying them!
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Dave
A train station is where the train stops. A bus station is where the bus stops. On my desk, I have a work station....
Last edited by Person99 on Thu Dec 04, 2008 1:24 am; edited 1 time in total
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kal
Forum Administrator
Joined: 06 Mar 2006
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Location: Ottawa, Canada
TV/Projector: JVC DLA-NZ7
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| Posted: Thu Dec 04, 2008 1:23 am Post subject: |
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| Person99 wrote: | | You and me both buddy. What I'm afraid of is that BD becomes a niche product similar to LaserDisc. As such, pricing will never get better. |
While I love to see prices drop, I'm actually ok with the prices of Blu-ray discs now. Only a few bucks more than DVD and 1/2 to 1/5 the price of what laserdisc used to cost. It wasn't unheard of to spend $100-150 on a laserdisc!
Kal
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WanMan
Joined: 19 Mar 2006
Posts: 10270
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| Posted: Thu Dec 04, 2008 10:18 am Post subject: |
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| Person99 wrote: | | WanMan wrote: | | I'm making the case that to the purest they simply are not going to trust streaming vendors, including VOD/PPV. |
I completely agree. But the purest represents 2-5% of the market. The purest wouldn't listen to MP3s either, but iTunes, et al have almost completely killed other mediums.
| WanMan wrote: | | Too many examples in which the cable and satellite companies have abused customers in the paid-for market. Of course the cowsumers that continue to support the cable and satellite industrie |
Exactly my point. DirecTV is not going out of business due to crappy PQ. So what does that tell you about consumer behavior? |
But you are not acknowledging my point that cowsumers will pay-for Blu-ray only because its the rage. As a dumb result, they will support the platform along with the purist. 
To believe that folks will stop buying would be a big surprise, but I like surprises. And if there are titles starting to sell a million copies then the niche market for BD is not so niche anymore. Even dumb folks want to buy into an HD prerecorded platform to go with their HD display. This is further solidified when all of those H-Def TV shows are almost immediately coming out on BD, too.
For instance, I already have Pushing Daisies Season One and was about to buy Chuck. No need to depend on DirecTV, for me, to timeshift anything but the most recent unwatched episode. Long term solution means on pre-recorded disk, and why would I DVD when they are offering it to me on BD?
BTW, I am NOT an early adopter nor do I consider myself niche-centric. I am a lot closer to one of those rare cowsumers--one with a brain.
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Person99
Joined: 09 Mar 2006
Posts: 4899
Location: Flower Mound, TX
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| Posted: Thu Dec 04, 2008 2:52 pm Post subject: |
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| WanMan wrote: | | Person99 wrote: | | WanMan wrote: | | I'm making the case that to the purest they simply are not going to trust streaming vendors, including VOD/PPV. |
I completely agree. But the purest represents 2-5% of the market. The purest wouldn't listen to MP3s either, but iTunes, et al have almost completely killed other mediums.
| WanMan wrote: | | Too many examples in which the cable and satellite companies have abused customers in the paid-for market. Of course the cowsumers that continue to support the cable and satellite industrie |
Exactly my point. DirecTV is not going out of business due to crappy PQ. So what does that tell you about consumer behavior? |
But you are not acknowledging my point that cowsumers will pay-for Blu-ray only because its the rage. As a dumb result, they will support the platform along with the purist. |
Ah, now I understand your argument. I disagree with your premise. I don't think blu-ray has caught on enough yet to be the "rage". With things like Apple TV HD, Netflix/XBox, and HD VOD from the various providers, I think one of them will become the "rage" before blu-ray does.
If you are correct and blu-ray becomes the "rage" before something else does, then it might be the dominant format, but I think its window of opportunity is closing quite quickly as the other options come on-line and really pick up speed within the next couple years.
| WanMan wrote: | | Even dumb folks want to buy into an HD prerecorded platform to go with their HD display. This is further solidified when all of those H-Def TV shows are almost immediately coming out on BD, too...I am a lot closer to one of those rare cowsumers--one with a brain. |
My point is no they don't. Their behavior suggests the opposite. People rent much more content then they buy. When renting, it does not matter how it is delivered--they don't care if it is bits through a network or a prerecorded disc. And when they do buy, they still don't care about having it in a physical format as the success of iPod/iTunes has proven.
Lastly, your ad hominem attacks actually serve to disprove your claim that you are someone "with a brain". In the grand scheme of things, I can think of VERY FEW things in this world that are LESS important than movies and TV. Perhaps the only one being professional sports. Thus, it is pretty hard to call someone stupid because quality of presentation of something so unimportant is not a high priority for them.
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Dave
A train station is where the train stops. A bus station is where the bus stops. On my desk, I have a work station....
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wallace123456
Joined: 14 Aug 2006
Posts: 2236
Location: Northwest VA area
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| Posted: Fri Dec 05, 2008 12:44 am Post subject: |
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| Person99 wrote: | | wallace123456 wrote: | My vote is: Never really takes off and dies within 5-7 years.
But then this option is like an oxy-moron. In today's technology world, I can't see anything here today, but not being replaced within 5-7 years.
5-7 years from now??? Come on. I suppose someone thinks we are at a stand-still or lull in technology advancements?
I say more like, it's the mode of delivery for a few more years. It wont "die off"; it will be replaced.
wallace |
DVD has been around for about 13 years and shows no sign of dying off soon. This option was supposed to mean that it just kind of flops around and dies before it hits 10 years old--sort of like LaserDisc (although it lasted a bit over 20 years thanks to Japanese adoption rates).
At the rate of adoption, there is no friggin' way it will be replaced before another 8+ years. People will not buy BD players then be happy to replace them 3-4 year later. Heck, most homes will not even have a blu-ray player for at least 2-3 years from now, no way they are going to be willing to replace them 1-2 years after buying them! |
DVD has been around, yes. This poll was regarding BD.
We all can buy DVDs for under $3.00 at wally-world all day. And if you ever wanted to see how much they sell from those bargain bins, just go to wally-world on any given Saturday and watch the people sort thru the bins and buy stuff.
Laser disc was doomed as soon as VHS won.
I hope you are correct, but then I hope you're not. The roll-out of BD material is still slow AND expensive IMO (damn Sony has their hands in this somehow I know.  ). To get the masses to embrace and consume this, the players need to be dirt cheap, as well as the disc.
Look at the amount of space that blockbuster allocates for BD movies in their stores. It's about the size of a postage stamp. We have rented from BB a few times, on Friday evening, and never once did we find that any movie in the BD section was all rented out. Now, step over to the SD area of the store, and most new releases are gone.
Can I go back and vote for half of 1 option, and half from another? 
wallace
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WanMan
Joined: 19 Mar 2006
Posts: 10270
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| Posted: Fri Dec 05, 2008 10:46 am Post subject: |
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| Person99 wrote: | | WanMan wrote: | | Person99 wrote: | | WanMan wrote: | | I'm making the case that to the purest they simply are not going to trust streaming vendors, including VOD/PPV. |
I completely agree. But the purest represents 2-5% of the market. The purest wouldn't listen to MP3s either, but iTunes, et al have almost completely killed other mediums.
| WanMan wrote: | | Too many examples in which the cable and satellite companies have abused customers in the paid-for market. Of course the cowsumers that continue to support the cable and satellite industrie |
Exactly my point. DirecTV is not going out of business due to crappy PQ. So what does that tell you about consumer behavior? |
But you are not acknowledging my point that cowsumers will pay-for Blu-ray only because its the rage. As a dumb result, they will support the platform along with the purist. |
Ah, now I understand your argument. I disagree with your premise. I don't think blu-ray has caught on enough yet to be the "rage". With things like Apple TV HD, Netflix/XBox, and HD VOD from the various providers, I think one of them will become the "rage" before blu-ray does.
If you are correct and blu-ray becomes the "rage" before something else does, then it might be the dominant format, but I think its window of opportunity is closing quite quickly as the other options come on-line and really pick up speed within the next couple years.
| WanMan wrote: | | Even dumb folks want to buy into an HD prerecorded platform to go with their HD display. This is further solidified when all of those H-Def TV shows are almost immediately coming out on BD, too...I am a lot closer to one of those rare cowsumers--one with a brain. |
My point is no they don't. Their behavior suggests the opposite. People rent much more content then they buy. When renting, it does not matter how it is delivered--they don't care if it is bits through a network or a prerecorded disc. And when they do buy, they still don't care about having it in a physical format as the success of iPod/iTunes has proven.
Lastly, your ad hominem attacks actually serve to disprove your claim that you are someone "with a brain". In the grand scheme of things, I can think of VERY FEW things in this world that are LESS important than movies and TV. Perhaps the only one being professional sports. Thus, it is pretty hard to call someone stupid because quality of presentation of something so unimportant is not a high priority for them. |
You, sir, are a fool. You honestly think your Internet Service Provider is going to completely ignore the way you get content and not subject you to bandwidth caps? This eliminate two of the three (Apple TV HD, Netflix/XBox, and HD VOD). Unless your provider is also your source for VOD then you are looking at a very gloomy future in this approach.
Don't believe me? After failing to get federal approval over its per protocol traffic management, Comcast instituted a global bandwidth cap on all of its customers. While it is 'reasonable' (250GB/month), AT&T already decided that virtual collusion was acceptable and followed the footsteps of a local Beaumont, TX cable operator where they applied a 20GB/month bandwidth consumption cap. How much HD are these folks going to be able to get from your three swords of freedom?
And remember, the sources in which you are advertising as future rages are only as good as the dumb pipe will support. Considering the current state of affairs in economy, some of these operators are cutting back on buildout projects and laying off (AT&T just whacked 12,000). Hopefully in your personal situation your cowsuming neighbors do not start trends of competing for network bandwidth, because your dream of streamed enticement will obviously get thrown into the mix with their needs as well.
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Joust
Joined: 05 May 2006
Posts: 2429
Location: Almonte, Ontario, Canada
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| Posted: Fri Dec 05, 2008 12:22 pm Post subject: |
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| WanMan wrote: |
You, sir, are a fool. You honestly think your Internet Service Provider is going to completely ignore the way you get content and not subject you to bandwidth caps? |
this is a very narrow minded view.
you are looking ONLY within North America. The providers have you wrapped around their finger.
the rest of the world does not work this way. the base internet speeds are much faster per sub, no caps. far cheaper.
internet streaming IS the way of the future.
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emdawgz1
Joined: 14 Mar 2006
Posts: 7949
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| Posted: Fri Dec 05, 2008 2:25 pm Post subject: |
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| Joust wrote: | | WanMan wrote: |
You, sir, are a fool. You honestly think your Internet Service Provider is going to completely ignore the way you get content and not subject you to bandwidth caps? |
this is a very narrow minded view.
you are looking ONLY within North America. The providers have you wrapped around their finger.
the rest of the world does not work this way. the base internet speeds are much faster per sub, no caps. far cheaper.
internet streaming IS the way of the future. |
This was one of my first arguments. The providers see this coming, and they want to do 2 things.
1. Charge more money to higher bandwith users.
2. work their way toward a per gb price for certain users.
Its not that it costs them more. they just want more revenue.
to me HD-VOD is not going to be good. I prefer the quality offered by B/R.
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Joust
Joined: 05 May 2006
Posts: 2429
Location: Almonte, Ontario, Canada
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| Posted: Fri Dec 05, 2008 2:32 pm Post subject: |
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you are still only comparing to the currently offered services by money grabbing providers we have to deal with here now.
they have a ton of surplus BW available to them. they are making money hand over fist and doling it out with an eyedropper all the time bellyaching that they are struggling (a lie)
They can and should do it properly for us. Europe is, japan is and for a lot less $$
We are sheep....
example. for $15 per month in france you get 25Gbps DSL and TV over IP. no BW cap. They could stream HD.
BTW theri lite internet (the minimum) is 8Gbps.
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