| What is the future of blu-ray? |
| Takes off within 2 years and becomes the primary media distribution option for several years |
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39% |
[ 9 ] |
| Takes off within 3-5 years and becomes the primary media distribution option for several years |
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30% |
[ 7 ] |
| Never becomes the dominant media distribution mechanism as is just "one of many" before its end of life |
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4% |
[ 1 ] |
| Is supplanted by HD VOD before it takes off and it becomes a niche format |
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8% |
[ 2 ] |
| Never really takes off and dies within 5-7 years |
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17% |
[ 4 ] |
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| Total Votes : 23 |
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Person99
Joined: 09 Mar 2006
Posts: 4899
Location: Flower Mound, TX
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| Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2008 5:26 pm Post subject: The Future of Blu-Ray |
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Curious to know what you guys think the future holds (i.e. how many agree with me). 
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drice1234
Joined: 07 Oct 2006
Posts: 1309
Location: Allen, Texas
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| Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2008 6:02 pm Post subject: |
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I think with the pricing for LCD's capable of displaying 1080p dropping as much as they have that more people will have displays capable of utilizing BluRay. It also appears that BluRay players have dropped below the $150 mark during the holiday season which will speed up the process.
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emdawgz1
Joined: 14 Mar 2006
Posts: 7949
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| Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2008 6:14 pm Post subject: |
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With the amount of data that can be put on a BR it will be the medium that replaces dvd's for movies and data.
VOD is cool but the amount of investment needed to bring that kind of bandwith to the masses will be substantial.
We know how much the corporate world likes Capital Investment.....
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kal
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| Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2008 6:24 pm Post subject: |
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BR is already taking off faster than DVD though I think it'll take a very long time (or possibly never) to completely replace DVD.
I don't think it's going to die, but I don't think it's going to completely replace DVD any time soon. I think the two will live a happy co-existance for quite some time with DVD slowly dropping away as people's TVs die and the only new ones left to buy are HDMI/HD only.
Kal
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Person99
Joined: 09 Mar 2006
Posts: 4899
Location: Flower Mound, TX
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| Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2008 7:29 pm Post subject: |
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| drice1234 wrote: | | I think with the pricing for LCD's capable of displaying 1080p dropping as much as they have that more people will have displays capable of utilizing BluRay. It also appears that BluRay players have dropped below the $150 mark during the holiday season which will speed up the process. |
You'd think that. I know 3 people personally with HD 16:9 displays that have no HD sources hooked up to them because it is "not worth the price".
Most people still think DVD looks great on their 55" 1080p HDTV.
| drice1234 wrote: | | VOD is cool but the amount of investment needed to bring that kind of bandwith to the masses will be substantial. |
Not sure what you are talking about. It is already occuring. I have it. Those XBox/Netflix/Broadband folks have it. HD VOD will likely not have lossless audio or anything like that in the near future, but I'm betting the it certainly crosses the "good enough" threshold for the vast majority of people. I've showed the differences in video and audio to 2 HD VOD users, both of them said that while they could see/hear the differences, the convenience and cost of HD VOD so far exceeded blu-ray that they will not consider a blu-ray player anytime in the foreseeable future! I think they represent a huge chunk of the consumers.
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garyfritz
Joined: 08 Apr 2006
Posts: 12088
Location: Fort Collins, CO
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| Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2008 7:51 pm Post subject: |
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| Person99 wrote: | | Most people still think DVD looks great on their 55" 1080p HDTV. |
And you know what? It DOES. A 55" HDTV is about 48" wide. I don't have the figures at hand, but you have to sit at something like 1.8x width to resolve 1080x1920 pixels, assuming 20/20 vision. I doubt many of those people sit closer than 7' to their TVs, so they can't see the resolution provided by HDTV. That's the biggest battle any HD source has to fight: most people won't pay for it because they can't see the benefit.
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Person99
Joined: 09 Mar 2006
Posts: 4899
Location: Flower Mound, TX
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| Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2008 8:31 pm Post subject: |
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| kal wrote: | | BR is already taking off faster than DVD |
Where did you get that from? I've not seen that. The only thing I've seen is BD player adoption rate internationally outpaced DVD player adoption but that is because they count the PS3 in there even if it will never play a movie (which according to many sources is true for the majority of them).
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WanMan
Joined: 19 Mar 2006
Posts: 10270
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| Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2008 9:05 pm Post subject: |
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Are we talking about the general storage medium Blu-ray, or are we talking about prerecorded content on Blu-ray? The storage medium has already been around for more than a couple of years, but just not in the USA. And considering they got 400GB BD disks coming ...
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kal
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| Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2008 10:01 pm Post subject: |
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| Person99 wrote: | | kal wrote: | | BR is already taking off faster than DVD |
Where did you get that from? I've not seen that. The only thing I've seen is BD player adoption rate internationally outpaced DVD player adoption but that is because they count the PS3 in there even if it will never play a movie (which according to many sources is true for the majority of them). |
That spec is incorrect according to the DEG, and this info is old:
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Oct 30, 2008:
"One month ago, Paramount's Iron Man became the first Blu-ray Disc release to sell 500,000 units in its first week of release (Link: http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6602928.html?desc=topstory). Industry sources tell me that the title has CONTINUED to sell well and is closing in on 1 million units sold. If Iron Man doesn't get there first, Warner's mega-smash hit The Dark Knight is on deck for release on Blu-ray Disc on 12/9. Does anyone think it isn't going to fly off the shelves too? Either way, by the end of the year (almost certainly by the end of January), one of these two titles - and quite possibly BOTH - could hit 1 million units sold. That milestone will have been reached just a little more than two years after the Blu-ray format was launched. Do you know how long it took DVD to have its first million selling title? Just under THREE years - The Matrix, which debuted on the format in late 1999."
Source: http://www.thedigitalbits.com/mytwocentsa161.html#bdrant
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Nov 14, 2008:
"Also today, the Digital Entertainment Group held an interesting press event this morning in Hollywood to talk about the latest HDTV and Blu-ray Disc market research. On hand were senior home video execs from all the major Hollywood studios. Among the interesting revelations (and we'll be talking about them a lot more on Monday) were these: We're now a little over 2 years into the growth of the Blu-ray format. At the same point in the early life of DVD, there were 1.2 million DVD players in U.S. homes. Fox's Mike Dunn claimed that there are more than 2.5 million stand-alone Blu-ray players in the U.S. today, with another 8 million PS3s. Price points for both Blu-ray hardware and software are at about the same level as they were at this point for DVD. BD hardware sales were reportedly up 25% in October from the previous year. And Blu-ray software sales are actually AHEAD of the DVD software sales curve, and have been accelerating even in the last two months as the economic slowdown has become more obvious. The DEG says that a year ago, Blu-ray made up about 10% of total sales of new blockbuster titles. Today, that total is 14%, and the industry expects that to increase to between 18-20% in the next year (likely starting with Warner's The Dark Knight). Much of this is being driven by the adoption of HDTVs in the U.S. (which are now installed in 50% of U.S. households). The DEG's research indicates that some 28% of HDTV households in the U.S. currently view Blu-ray movies. No actual hard numbers were given, but according to the U.S. Census Bureau, there are roughly 111 million households in the U.S. (as of 2007), so some 55 million of those current have HDTVs. At a 28%, that comes out to about 15 million U.S. households watching Blu-rays, either on stand-alone players or PS3s. That's our own rough calculation based on the estimated percentages the DEG provided. We suspect the actual number is somewhere between 10 and 15 million, which would more closely match up with the estimated number of BD players and PS3s mentioned above - something north of 10.5 million. Regardless, that's still an impressive figure when you consider that the laserdisc market - at its height - amounted to a total of 2 million LD players here in the States. In a little over two years, Blu-ray has ALREADY far surpassed laserdisc and is currently running ahead of the DVD adoption curve. So much for those claims that Blu-ray will remain a niche market."
Source: http://www.thedigitalbits.com/mytwocentsa162.html#trektrailer
Kal
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kal
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zaphod
Joined: 16 Jun 2006
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Location: Cloverdale
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| Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2008 10:18 pm Post subject: |
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i only see BR picking up speed, and i don't really see a "grabbable" media taking over. i really think that the next media shift will be akin to music - that is iTunes, or some other library based digital storage medium. right now CDs are fast on the way to being nothing more than coasters, and i think that in 5 years we'll see the same for video disks.
sure they will still be around, just like CDs will be and VHS tapes still are, but digital streaming from a repository (local or service) will be the next jump for serving video.
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garyfritz
Joined: 08 Apr 2006
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| Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2008 10:22 pm Post subject: |
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| kal wrote: | Fox's Mike Dunn claimed that there are more than 2.5 million stand-alone Blu-ray players in the U.S. today, with another 8 million PS3s.
No actual hard numbers were given, but according to the U.S. Census Bureau, there are roughly 111 million households in the U.S. (as of 2007), so some 55 million of those current have HDTVs. At a 28%, that comes out to about 15 million U.S. households watching Blu-rays, either on stand-alone players or PS3s. That's our own rough calculation based on the estimated percentages the DEG provided. We suspect the actual number is somewhere between 10 and 15 million, which would more closely match up with the estimated number of BD players and PS3s mentioned above - something north of 10.5 million. |
His numbers don't jive very well. They're guessing between 10 and 15 million households watching Blu-ray, but there are a total of 2.5+8 = 10.5 million devices *capable* of playing Blu-ray. (Ignoring the vanishingly small HTPC segment.) I seriously doubt anywhere near 100% of all PS3's are being used for movies...
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Person99
Joined: 09 Mar 2006
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Location: Flower Mound, TX
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| Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2008 11:21 pm Post subject: |
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Kal,
As a statistic, overall numbers like this are VERY deceptive and don't present an accurate picture. The population is larger, disposable income is larger, etc.
What REALLY tells the picture is apples to apples comparisons. for instance, 2 years after its introduction, there we 3 formats movies could be bought on:
- DVD
- VHS
- LaserDisc
Currently, there are 3 ways to get movies:
- DVD
- BD
- VOD
What we have to due is compare the percentage of DVD sales to total sales (DVD + LaserDisc + VHS) in case 1 to the percentage of sales BD represents in case 2. I'm betting you won't find this because it will not look good for blu-ray adoption rate. Instead, they want it to appear it is catching on so they use misleading or (as Gary pointed out) false numbers to make it look good.
The statistic cited are basically an Apples to Oranges comparison and of little to no use.
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Person99
Joined: 09 Mar 2006
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| Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2008 11:22 pm Post subject: |
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| zaphod wrote: | i only see BR picking up speed, and i don't really see a "grabbable" media taking over. i really think that the next media shift will be akin to music - that is iTunes, or some other library based digital storage medium. right now CDs are fast on the way to being nothing more than coasters, and i think that in 5 years we'll see the same for video disks.
sure they will still be around, just like CDs will be and VHS tapes still are, but digital streaming from a repository (local or service) will be the next jump for serving video. |
If you are right, then BD will be dead before it really hits widespread adoption (i.e. DVD will still have a substantial portion of the market when this shift occurs).
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zaphod
Joined: 16 Jun 2006
Posts: 2002
Location: Cloverdale
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| Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2008 11:40 pm Post subject: |
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| Person99 wrote: | | zaphod wrote: | i only see BR picking up speed, and i don't really see a "grabbable" media taking over. i really think that the next media shift will be akin to music - that is iTunes, or some other library based digital storage medium. right now CDs are fast on the way to being nothing more than coasters, and i think that in 5 years we'll see the same for video disks.
sure they will still be around, just like CDs will be and VHS tapes still are, but digital streaming from a repository (local or service) will be the next jump for serving video. |
If you are right, then BD will be dead before it really hits widespread adoption (i.e. DVD will still have a substantial portion of the market when this shift occurs). |
well, you heard it here first 
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kal
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| Posted: Wed Dec 03, 2008 1:18 am Post subject: |
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| Person99 wrote: | | The statistic cited are basically an Apples to Oranges comparison and of little to no use. |
Good point Dave. You're right that the comparison is somewhat meaningless now that I look at it bit closer.
As long as we have good HD content is SOME format available, I'm happy. Couldn't care less what format. The problem is that formats for a lot of people are like religions - you can't have a rational discussion with most people that are for one format over another.
I myself am not a fanboy of format, but instead a fan of HD and ease of use and quality. Right now, that means Blu-ray for me. Tomorrow, it may be something else. Anyone spending money of a format needs to treat it as a disposable item, like food. You can't "expect" it to still be around 2-10 years from now. Doing so is just foolish.
If I could pay $2-4 per viewing to watch a GOOD HD movie reliably through some sort of streaming content I'd go for that. Sounds good to me. Problem is most of the on-demand HD looks like crap (compressed to all hell to reduce the bandwidth requirements).
I doubt (ie: hope) that all HD formats won't die off leaving us with SD. I can't go back! Don't make me go back!
Kal
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WanMan
Joined: 19 Mar 2006
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| Posted: Wed Dec 03, 2008 10:58 am Post subject: |
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I think to a purest, VOD will never be accepted. Why? Because, the original content from the studio will ultimately be adulterated (cheapened in PQ) to fit their infrastructure bill. Don't believe me? Then walk the plank of a blind eye and see for yourself.
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emdawgz1
Joined: 14 Mar 2006
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| Posted: Wed Dec 03, 2008 2:18 pm Post subject: |
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| WanMan wrote: | | I think to a purest, VOD will never be accepted. Why? Because, the original content from the studio will ultimately be adulterated (cheapened in PQ) to fit their infrastructure bill. Don't believe me? Then walk the plank of a blind eye and see for yourself. |
Which was my point. If the content delivery companies...Verizon, Comcast, Time warner, have the choice of
A. Compressing the Hell out of the HD to deliver it in existing infrastructure
or
B. Building a network that will support sending less or uncompressed HD..... which do you think they will choose???
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Person99
Joined: 09 Mar 2006
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| Posted: Wed Dec 03, 2008 2:34 pm Post subject: |
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I agree with Kal largely, I want HD--period. I want it in the best quality most consumer friendly format possible. I'm sure I could have been branded as "anti-BD" or "HD DVD fan-boy" but that was more about what was best for the consumer (which I still believe was HD DVD).
I think John and Wan are correct that it is unlikely that VOD will achieve the video and audio quality we can get on media such as BD. I never said it would (in fact I said it would not). However, if you think that is going to be a driving force for BD, I think you are living in a world that is not the real world and have not learned the lessons of the past.
Look around, the best products do not always win. I'm typing this on a Windows box, pretty hard to argue that Windows was the best OS ever--and yet it won. It won not because of anything to do with the quality of the product. It won because due to other forces. (Do I need to point out LaserDisc vs. VHS--VHS pretty much won that one!)
I think the same will happen here. HD VOD will not be of the same quality as BD, but for 80-90% of the people, it will not matter--it will be "good enough", cheaper, and SIGNIFICANTLY more convenient.
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Person99
Joined: 09 Mar 2006
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| Posted: Wed Dec 03, 2008 4:31 pm Post subject: |
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| kal wrote: |
If I could pay $2-4 per viewing to watch a GOOD HD movie reliably through some sort of streaming content I'd go for that. Sounds good to me. |
I would gladly pay $5-6 for that if it was good. Think about it. Movies on BD cost $20-25. I buy ones I think I'll watch more than 3 times. Many times I don't even get that many views. Even at $6 the VOD does not become more expensive until the Fifth viewing! On average, there are few movies you will watch over 4 times and you'll make up the extra money with the ones you don't watch that much.
AND, if there were no additional hardware to buy (no player, no game machines, etc), then you save that expense--which exists even if they get under $100.
This is why I think this is the future--it is too good to pass up. People will happily sacrifice quality for better. Hell, look at iTunes and MP3 players. They've almost completely killed off CDs. I still can't understand why anyone in their right mind thinks that even though this happened with audio it will not happen with video. It will happen with video either as streaming VOD or as zaphod pointed out, an 'iMovies" type application. I'm just hoping it is the "iMovies" application and two things happen:
1) The full quality is there.
2) Renting of full quality will be possible.
I don't think number 1 will happen with HD VOD.
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