CurtPalme.com Home Theater Forum

WanMan · Joined: 19 Mar 2006 Posts: 10273

The prices keep coming down. Years ago the concern was the cost for what seemed like expensive-for-disposable products, but the days of $25K 1080P disposable projectors is now $1600. In another ten years, they'll probably be $500.

cmjohnson · Joined: 03 Apr 2006 Posts: 5180 Location: Buried under G90s

Good, I'll buy three of them, replace the rotating RGB color filter system with single color dichroic filter elements,
run all three channels of each one on a single color, and have the world's first 1500 dollar 3 chip DLP unit. One unit runs red,
the second runs green, the third runs blue, and their output is aligned and combined with prisms and mirrors. Cheap fun!

CJ

MikeEby · Joined: 24 Jun 2007 Posts: 5238 Location: Osceola, Indiana

Make that $1300.

http://www.tigerdirect.com/applications/SearchTools/item-details.asp?EdpNo=4490483&CatId=1755

Mike

Person99 · Joined: 09 Mar 2006 Posts: 4901 Location: Flower Mound, TX

WanMan · Joined: 19 Mar 2006 Posts: 10273

ecrabb · Posted: Mon Jun 15, 2009 4:31 pm Post subject:

I think time will tell which one of you are right and which one is wrong. Like everything else, it will probably be somewhere in the middle.

Dave, in way you're right that what the market will bear will determine the price. A performance car has been, and probably always will be fairly expensive to manufacture and maintain. Technology will likely never bring us Porsche 911 or Corvette ZR1 performance for the price of a new Honda Civic. Problem is, projectors aren't really like cars anymore. Projectors are more like computers. In that way computers have gotten ridiculously cheap. So cheap, in fact that most manufacturers have had to found increasingly creative methods to make money on them. We've reached a point where most low- to mid-range computers are more than adequate for probably 90% of the population. They have bigger hard drives, more RAM, and more CPU power than most people will ever use. All this for $500-1000. Projectors are much more like computers than they are cars.

So, what about projectors? Currently, there are a whole slew of projectors around $1000 that will blow the doors off the $2500 projectors of 5 years ago. Dave, you yourself rave about how great of a CIH setup you can get for around $1500. So, my point is, that as quality and technology keeps trickling down, eventually you'll be able to buy a $999 1080p projector that will smoke today's $2500 1080p projector. I'll be surprised if that doesn't happen in 5 years or less. Yes, there will be machines with better PQ, better warranty, better build quality, better support, etc.

Time will tell...

SC

Person99 · Joined: 09 Mar 2006 Posts: 4901 Location: Flower Mound, TX

To some degree SC. Digital SLRs are more like computers than cars, yet their price stays high because of optics. The same applies in the digital PJ world. There are some limiting factors. I think we will see $1000 1080p projectors that equal the Mitsu HC5000 or something like that. But I don't think any manufacturer is going to go that low with a "decent" projector. We will see.

ecrabb · Posted: Mon Jun 15, 2009 8:06 pm Post subject:

Yeah, like I said, you're both right to some extent. DSLR's is a good example too, though; in fact, I'll use it to support my argument... Wink

For instance, unless I was shooting professionally and needed the durability and speed of a pro body, I'd generally take a brand new Rebel XSi or Nikon D5000 over a 5-year old prosumer body like a Canon 30D or Nikon D200. Both are examples of where the higher-end technology has trickled down into the lower-end products making the same quality much more affordable. The $700 Nikon D60 has most of the quality and technology of the D200 that was $1700 just three years ago. For "most people", it would produce images that are very comparable. The D200's successor, the D300 - smokes the D200 in every way.

Now, obviously projectors aren't advancing like the "megapixel" race going on in cameras, but I can easily see how the PQ available in a $2500 projector today will be available in a $1500 projector in 2-3 years, and the $2500 projectors might match what the $3500 projectors are doing now. Obviously, that paradigm falls apart as you approach the mid- to high-end where all bets are off.

SC

WanMan · Joined: 19 Mar 2006 Posts: 10273

Considering 5-6 years ago a 1080P digital projector ran +$25K I'd say its not surprising. Its all about the R&D and material costs. They keep making the things smaller and smaller to use less and less high quality materials. And considering how quickly digitals have reached the cheap on 1080P compared to analog ...

Person99 · Joined: 09 Mar 2006 Posts: 4901 Location: Flower Mound, TX

ecrabb · Posted: Thu Jun 25, 2009 4:58 pm Post subject:

Dave is right. If it were only R&D + materials, there would be wild price differences between similar products from different companies. The fact is that most companies try to optimize profit by pricing their products at what the market will bear, irrespective of actual gross product cost, as long as there can be profit. Looking at it from the opposite direction, when a company looks at a market segment they want to play in, they have to look at what the target market will pay for the product - what the market will bear - then put the appropriate amount design, R&D, material, manufacturing and marketing to meet that target price. It's very much about what the market will bear.

Dave is also right that there will never be a $99 digital... At least not one that's worth a crap. Maybe there will be a 1080p version of the $99 320x240 digital toy projectors currently being sold, but it will be just as much junk as the current projectors are, only higher resolution. It will also take years and years to get there; you might see something like that 10 years from now.

All that being said, just like most of the current crop of $999 LCD's are as good or better than similar-size LCD's from 5 years ago, and at probably 1/4 the price... Again, I could easily see how in 3 years we could buy, say a $1500-2000 1080p digital projector that will put today's $4000 projectors to shame. In fact, I'd probably bet money on it.

In fact, a couple of years from now is probably when I'll make the jump. Either when I can buy something like a used RS20 for $1500-2000, or when something new at around that price has comparable PQ. At that point, nice 9" machines will be the only CRTs left with much value. Even the 9" machines won't be worth a lot of money. IMHO, of course.

SC

garyfritz · Joined: 08 Apr 2006 Posts: 12026 Location: Fort Collins, CO

I won't consider going digital until they get rid of the bulb. When the LED projectors are mainstream and coming down in price, THEN I'll consider it. Assuming they get the performance & fidelity right, of course.

whats6x7 · Joined: 04 Oct 2006 Posts: 5915

For home theatre use I really don't see projectors being the future. Sony's Organic Light-Emitting Diode(OLED) TV has a contrast ration of 1,000,000:1 and its very thin. I'd think eventually you'll be able to buy a 100" TV that hangs on the wall.

Sharp already has a 108" LCD TV. Combine that with the 1,000,000:1 contrast ratio of OLED and it might be game over.

IMCBHO (In my crystal ball's humble opinion)

ecrabb · Posted: Thu Jun 25, 2009 10:20 pm Post subject:

Gary, I don't see the big deal with the bulb. Bulbs have been in projectors since the beginning of motion pictures... LONG before CRT's were ever invented. Yeah, they burn out. Big deal. The way I watch my projector, a single bulb would last me at least a couple of years. Yes, LED's are nice - I just question when or if they'll ever get to where the brightness is up, longevity is up, and cost is down for front projection. LED's would definitely be nice, though.

42, I don't know, dude... A big flat panel is just a big flat panel. There's something magical about a big screen as opposed to a flat panel. Maybe it's just nostalgia, but walking into a theater with the lights up and seeing the big white screen... It's magical. Then, the lights go out and a big, bright light lights that screen up. The screen transforms from a dead material surface into a window into another world. I don't know if that same magical window effect would exist for a big box on the wall, regardless of technology or PQ. There certainly wouldn't be any nostalgia about it!

Besides, the teeny tiniest OLED's are still mega bucks, even after years of hearing about how great it is. That 10 or 12" Sony is still the price of what, a 50"+ LCD? There's another OLED, but it's even more expensive, IIRC. Does an OLED display bigger than a computer monitor even exist outside of a laboratory? If they ever can scale it up to projection screen sizes, will it ever be anywhere near as inexpensive as a projector? Just the mechanical engineering and material design of something that big would make it expensive, I'd think...

I don't see projection (of some kind) going away in dedicated HT with 8-10' wide screens for a long time. Projection is pretty hard to beat.

SC

garyfritz · Joined: 08 Apr 2006 Posts: 12026 Location: Fort Collins, CO

Bulbs burn out, at $300 or so a pop. It's true they won't do it real often the way I watch, but... it also cooks the optical path and limits the lifespan of the whole projector. I want my gear to last for decades. Plus LEDs have a more accurate color gamut. And, the big one for me: LEDs can cycle much faster than a color wheel. So rainbows should diminish enough so even I can stand a DLP.

A really awesome flat-panel would be nice, since it wouldn't be as dependent on pitch-black surroundings. But I'm with you, especially if you want a big screen, a projector is a much better way to do it. It's sure a lot lighter. Smile

whats6x7 · Joined: 04 Oct 2006 Posts: 5915

garyfritz · Joined: 08 Apr 2006 Posts: 12026 Location: Fort Collins, CO

I just barely remember the first TV I ever saw -- it belonged to some friends of my parents with more money than most of the farmers we knew. It was a huge cabinet, maybe 4'x4'x2', and had a ROUND screen about 4" in diameter. Obviously it was black & white. Smile

There were no color stations then anyway, and only one or two stations that we could actually receive in NE Iowa. This woulda been early 1960's or so?

Imagine what we (back in the 60's) would have thought of a 100" screen!!! Jetsons for sure!

Spanky Ham · Joined: 22 Mar 2006 Posts: 5643 Location: Comedy Central

Well, I would have agreed with Dave till I went and looked at pj prices. There are a bunch of pjs below $1000. I agree that quality will still cost money, but I can see some 1080p pjs that lack a lot of features in that price bracket. The real determining factor is businesses. When they decide to move to higher resolution, then you will see a change.

Whats,
I agree on the flat panel thing. I have thought for a long time that we will get to the point of having a video wall like in Total Recall. I thought flat panel tech would advance a little faster than it has, but who knows where we will be in five years.

Person99 · Joined: 09 Mar 2006 Posts: 4901 Location: Flower Mound, TX

Person99 · Joined: 09 Mar 2006 Posts: 4901 Location: Flower Mound, TX